F2010H012
Optimising the Service Life of Vehicles in a World of Improving CO2 Emissions
Keywords: Life cycle analysis, manufacturing energy, CO2 emission, recycling, optimisation.
In almost every country there has been an improvement in the greenhouse gases from new vehicles entering service. The paper reviews the trends in several continents showing that the rate of reduction varies from just over 1% up to 3.5% per annum. A review of the available data on vehicle production (including embedded materials) energy is made and also of typical examples of recycling energy recovery. Next, life-cycle CO2 emissions are formulated from these along with energy attributed to vehicle maintenance and estimates for road creation and maintenance energy. <The numerical formulation is general and thus the optimum life-cycle for given fuel consumption/CO2 emission trends can be identified over a period of several life cycles, chosen here (but not limited to) 50 years. The results show that in an environment where fuel consumption is falling 2.5% PA (geometrically) as it is in Australia, the optimum vehicle service life is about 16 years. Several other examples are estimated including for the EEC and Japan> This paper is founded on research done by the author for SAE-A's submission to a government committee looking to set long-term fuel consumption standards. The author was, in 2004, responsible for advising the government on the 2010 CO2 standards for all light duty vehicles. In that work the lowest attainable CO2 emission at reasonable cost was determined. <However no consideration was given to any impacts of the non-fuel CO2 contributions to whole of life emissions. The non-fuel related CO2 emissions have grown from 16% in 1980 and now represent about 25% of total CO2 assignable to light duty vehicles and therefore cannot be ignored. This proportion will increase as the fuel efficiency of vehicles continues to improve more rapidly than the remaining energy inputs (sometimes at the expense of manufacturing energy as with hybrids).> Programs that encourage very early retirement of vehicles from service are shown to be less than optimal even though they are encouraged in some jurisdictions e.g. Japan.
Novel features in <...> Previous relevant publications Parikh, Y, and Watson, H.C. Life cycle emissions manufacturing/ use/infrastructure. (1997) In Transport Engine Emissions, for Advanced Engineering Centre for Manufacturing, University of Melbourne. Theme 4, Paper 2, p1-27. (Based on a 3 year survey of measured energy inputs at the largest manufacturing plant in the Sourthern hemisphere). Watson H.C., Charters, W.W.S., Brey, S. Parikh, Y, Lamb D.G. and Fewchuk, D. (1998) Concept Car - Life Cycle Energy Analysis. SAE (Included in the 1998 Transactions) paper 981154, p1-5 (Set down process for energy accounting in vehicle design) Beer T, Grant T, Morgan G, Lapszewicz J, Anyon P, Edwards J, Nelson P, Watson H, and Williams D (2001). Final report to the Australian Greenhouse Office on the Stage 2 study of life cycle emissions analysis of alternative fuels for heavy vehicles. Australian Greenhouse Office, EV45A/2/F3C (http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/transport/comparison/index.html) (seminal work widely cited throughout the world).
Prepared in response to FISITA headquarters request for more Australian abstracts
This abstract is supplemented by a PDF, which can be viewed here.
Session: Efficient Production and Operation of Vehicles and Components